Izzah Ibrahim was quoted in Free Malaysia Today, 4 July 2025
Analysts say inclusive partnerships and a permanent Myanmar envoy are wins—but regional disputes could test the bloc’s unity.
By Alina Khai
PETALING JAYA: With Malaysia at the midpoint of its Asean chairmanship, analysts have lauded the bloc’s meaningful progress in regional and wider engagement—but warn of greater challenges that lie ahead.
Izzah Ibrahim of Malaysia’s Institute of Strategic and International Studies praised Asean’s commitment to advancing inclusiveness, in line with this year’s “Inclusivity and Sustainability” theme.
“This has been noticeable in Asean’s attempts to strengthen existing partnerships with its dialogue partners and in building new linkages, such as the inaugural Asean-Gulf Cooperation Council-China summit,” she told FMT.
Veteran academic Johan Saravanamuttu described Malaysia’s “South-South” orientation as a necessary and well-timed strategic recalibration.
“Malaysia in its leadership of Asean has moved clearly in the direction of more collaboration and cooperation with countries in the South,” he said, a reference to countries in Asia, Oceania, Africa and Latin America.
“I don’t think it means that we have given up relationships with the West,” he added.
“It does mean, however, that given the American policies under Trump—which will be very harmful for trade in the region—Malaysia is looking towards creating other economic and trading opportunities.”
Permanent Myanmar envoy
Another standout development has been Asean’s push for the appointment of a permanent envoy to Myanmar.
According to Izzah, the move will strengthen Asean’s long-term relevance.
“A permanent special envoy locks in consistency and momentum. It reflects a sustained commitment without needing to constantly restart the process to complex situations,” she said.
Until now, Asean has appointed its Myanmar envoy on a yearly rotation.
Under the bloc’s existing Troika system, the current, previous and incoming envoys are expected to consult with one another and coordinate their efforts to ensure continuity and shared responsibility.
Critics have panned the model, saying it undermines continuity in the peace process, especially since each envoy would, upon appointment, be required to establish links with more than 100 diverse ethnic groups in Myanmar and bring them to the negotiating table.
Johan, an adjunct professor at Universiti Malaya’s Asia-Europe Institute, also identified Timor-Leste’s accession to Asean as another key milestone.
“This is a good development for Asean,” he explained. “It completes the community.”
Johan noted that there were some objections to Timor-Leste joining the Asean ranks previously. “This is because it’s a very small country, a very poor country, but I think these issues have been overcome.”
Realistic expectations
But analysts said there were certain risks that could test Asean’s consensus-based model in the second half of Malaysia’s chairmanship.
“Asean is an incredibly diverse grouping,” said Sarah Teo, assistant professor at Singapore’s S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“While this diversity is a strength, it also presents limits when it comes to the speed and substantiveness of decision-making, cooperation and cohesion.”
Both Teo and Izzah expressed concern that persistent tensions along the Thailand-Cambodia border could spill over into Asean’s deliberative processes, potentially complicating regional cooperation.
“We cannot fully rule out the possibility,” said Izzah.
“It is a developing situation, and the extent of these tensions may not be fully apparent until later. It can also hinder institutional cohesiveness and their consensus-based decision-making, in addition to the bilateral tensions.”
Teo warned that Asean’s credibility could be undermined if the conflict prolongs or escalates but said continuing regional and multilateral cooperation involving both countries offers “a glimmer of hope”.
Rising tensions
The South China Sea is also a potential source of friction that may test regional diplomacy.
With tensions escalating in the Middle East, Teo warned that a “chain-reaction conflict” was not implausible, citing the growing risk of “miscalculation” in the South China Sea.
“The South China Sea is increasingly militarised,” said Izzah.
“This includes Chinese military installations on artificial islands, Indonesian naval ships guarding their EEZ, and the US Seventh Fleet conducting freedom of navigation and overflight operations, among others.”
Izzah said Asean would want to avoid escalating tensions, given its limited military capacity and longstanding preference for diplomatic conflict resolution.
“But there can be the risk of miscalculation from extra-regional actors.
“This is why Asean and its members have repeatedly called for restraint or cautioned against potentially inflammatory developments like the AUKUS pact,” she said, referring to the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US.
Teo called for Asean to continue strengthening its diplomatic and dialogue channels.
“Both formal and informal avenues of dialogue and cooperation are essential for maintaining regional stability, and, when necessary, de-escalating tensions,” she said.
This article first published in Free Malaysia Today, 4 July 2025
