|Presentation by||Calvin Cheng|
|Date||4 October 2019|
|Venue||Conference Room, ISIS Malaysia|
This presentation will update and expand upon material from a recent ISIS Malaysia policy brief titled “The US-China trade war: has Malaysia benefited from shifts in US import demand?”.
The first part of this presentation will explore major events in the US-China trade conflict since early-2018 and then examine recent research in the academic literature on global trade wars and tariff conflicts. Next, using detailed US Census Bureau data at the HS-10 level, the main part of the presentation will investigate empirically analyse claims of trade ‘diversion’ into Malaysia and consider cross-country comparisons of US import ‘diversion’ among regional Asian exporters. Then, the presentation will look at MIDA and DOSM data on investment approvals and foreign direct investment to gauge the potential of investment ‘diversion’. Finally, the presentation considers the potential policy implications of this analysis and offers concluding remarks.