Why Southeast Asia is wary of Trump’s ‘pay-to-play’ global peace board

Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam are among about 60 countries that have reportedly received invitations, alongside South Korea and India.

The initiative, presented by Trump as a new international body to promote global stability, was initially authorised by the United Nations Security Council to help oversee the Gaza peace plan and post-war reconstruction. But draft charter language reported by international media, and Trump’s suggestion that the body could later address other conflicts, point to ambitions beyond Gaza.

Ngoei Wen-Qing, an associate professor of history at the Singapore Management University, said the initiative was another of Trump’s attempts to recentre global politics around the US. “There have been suggestions that the world is increasingly multipolar, and the Trump administration has been trying to reverse that in dramatic ways.”

It was Trump’s “more exclusive version” of the UN Security Council, where he would hold almost uncontested veto power as the chair, said Kevin Chen, an associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Trump had long shown his scepticism of the UN, having withdrawn funding from the organisation, and this proposal was consistent with his views, said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.

On Tuesday, Trump suggested the board could supplant an ineffective UN. “The UN just hasn’t been very helpful. I’m a big fan of the UN potential, but it has never lived up to its potential,” he said, according to Bloomberg.

He added that he wished “we didn’t need a board of peace” but that “with all the wars I settled, the United Nations never helped me on one war”.

In whose interest?

Vietnam on Sunday said its top leader, To Lam, had accepted the invitation to join as a founding member. It is the only Southeast Asian state to confirm its participation. Other countries that have accepted include Hungary, Kazakhstan, Morocco and Argentina.

Vietnam’s invitation likely arose from the Trump Organisation’s US$1.5 billion project to build a luxury golf resort in the Hung Yen province, launched in May last year, said Carlyle Thayer, emeritus professor of politics at the University of New South Wales.

“I speculate that the Trump administration hopes to co-opt [Vietnam] to make some sort of contribution – financial, materials or labour,” Thayer said.

With details still unclear, the immediate benefits for members appear limited. “It’s not clear what the board of peace does apart from maybe giving a government a foot in the door with the Trump administration,” Chong said.

Countries who accepted the invitation likely anticipated reciprocal benefits, Ngoei said. “What those benefits are remains to be seen, but Vietnam may have wanted to acquire some, perhaps to insulate itself from other shock waves in the region.”

Of the Muslim-majority Southeast Asian nations who had criticised US-backed Israel’s action in Gaza, only Indonesia was invited while Malaysia was excluded.

Thomas Daniel, a director at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, said Washington and Tel Aviv probably felt that Jakarta would be “easier to manage”.

“Indonesia’s governing elites have a more flexible approach to Israel, where public criticism coexists with quiet engagement and collaboration, especially in intelligence and security,” he said.

In September last year, President Prabowo Subianto said Indonesia could recognise Israel, but only if Palestine statehood was acknowledged, leading to critics accusing him of undermining the country’s pro-Palestinian stance.

Prabowo’s position was a “sharp contrast” to that of Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim, Elina Noor, a senior fellow in the Asia Programme at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told This Week in Asia.

She noted that Anwar, a leading Southeast Asian voice opposing Israel’s war in Gaza, had criticised Tel Aviv publicly on many occasions – a recent one being in October last year, when at least 12 Malaysians on a humanitarian trip to Gaza were detained by Israeli forces.

On Tuesday, Anwar told parliament that Trump’s board would do little to rebuild Palestine, The Star newspaper reported. “This board has yet to clarify its objective,” he said. “The ceasefire has been signed yet the Israeli Zionist regime continues up till now.”

‘Hefty price tag’

Analysts said governments were likely to avoid committing early to the board, while steering clear of outright rejection to minimise the risk of Washington retaliating.

Singapore on Tuesday said it was “assessing the invitation”, and Thailand’s caretaker government, which is in the midst of an election campaign, said on Monday that it was weighing the invitation.

Another strong deterrent was the joining fee. Members must pay US$1 billion to secure permanent membership on the board, or would otherwise be limited to a three-year term, a requirement that analysts said would be a strong deterrent.

Countries would have to consider whether the “hefty price tag” was a worthwhile investment, Chong said.

In addition, there is the question of what will happen when Trump is no longer president.

A US official told Bloomberg on Tuesday that Trump could still lead the board after he left the White House. The chairmanship was his until he resigned, the official said.

Ngoei said that the stipulated fee was a “perfect disincentive” for Singapore to decline the invitation as accepting could potentially threaten to derail the city state’s carefully cultivated image of neutrality.

“[Singapore] needs the board to be very explicitly and clearly legitimate in the eyes of the global community,” he said. “You don’t really want to look like you’re trying to join an exclusive club that is a pay-to-play situation.”

Last October, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said in parliament that Singapore was not campaigning for a seat on the board.

“Let me take a step back and remind everybody this: we are Singaporeans. Our approach is always to do more, say less, be quietly helpful and constructive, and work from the ground up,” Balakrishnan said.

Invitees might be worried about snubbing Trump. When France, a US ally and UN Security Council member, declined the invitation on Monday, the mercurial president threatened a 200 per cent tariff on French wines and champagnes.

Countries could hedge their bets by joining on a non-permanent basis, Chen said. According to the charter, members can withdraw with “immediate effect” simply by telling Trump.

Some might be inclined to join to contribute, or even steer and influence, peace and reconstruction in the Gaza Strip, Noor said. “They might also be able to secure investment interests there in the rebuilding process.”

But nations also risked further diminishing UN frameworks that had long attempted to address the Gaza war to little avail, due to constant vetoes. “Countries need to carefully and sincerely assess whether this initiative will actually help the long-suffering people of Gaza,” Daniel said.